Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
