A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
